The 2026 NHL Draft is upon us, and the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a familiar debate: who should they select with the first overall pick? The consensus top prospect, Gavin McKenna, has been a household name since tearing up the WHL at just 17 years old. However, the parallels with the 2016 draft, when the Leafs passed on Patrik Laine for Auston Matthews, have led to a genuine debate about whether the Leafs should select Ivar Stenberg instead.
In my opinion, the debate is not as cut-and-dried as it was 10 years ago. McKenna has undoubtedly been impressive, but his production in the NCAA was more modest than expected, and his game away from the puck was scrutinized more heavily. Stenberg, on the other hand, has been on this trajectory for years and has consistently dominated his age group. He is a legitimate top-flight prospect, and passing on him for McKenna would be a risky bet.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the contrast between the two players' development paths. McKenna took advantage of the new junior hockey rules and moved from the WHL to the NCAA, where his numbers were much more modest than expected. Stenberg, meanwhile, has been playing in Sweden's top professional league and has consistently dominated his age group.
One thing that immediately stands out is the difference in their production in the second half of the season. Stenberg produced just 11 points over his final 24 SHL games, while McKenna recorded 35 points in 20 games. However, McKenna's improvement away from the puck and in his overall engagement was encouraging, and he tied for fifth in the NCAA with 51 points.
The Leafs will ultimately select McKenna, but Stenberg is very much the real deal and worthy of the pick/discussion. The draft is about building value within your organization, not simply filling immediate roster needs. While McKenna has the higher ceiling, Stenberg projects as the more complete, higher-floor option who still carries legitimate star potential.
In the end, the Leafs should select McKenna, but they must also recognize the potential of Stenberg. The draft is a gamble, and the Leafs must be prepared to take a risk on a player who may not immediately pan out. However, if they believe in McKenna's potential, there is essentially no debate. Players like him lap the field and separate themselves from their draft class by a large margin.
